Lukas' Notes

Definition

Probability of a Union

Let be a probability space and let be events. Then

Adding and counts the intersection twice. Subtracting counts it once.

Proof

Proof

Split into three pairwise disjoint events:

By the probability of a disjoint union,

The same pieces give disjoint decompositions of and :

Adding these probabilities and subtracting one copy of the intersection yields